Аннотация

В течение последующих шести месяцев, а возможно и более длительного срока, мы увидим чрезвычайно низкие и экономически неоправданные оценки акций. Украинскому рынку акций не будет хватать «горючего» для повышения стоимости акций, т.к. портфельные фонды закрывают свои позиции, а некоторые закрываются вовсе. По нашим оценкам, отток средств портфельных фондов  развивающихся стран в ноябре-сентябре достигнет 10 млрд долл США, увеличивая общий показатель за год до 50 млрд долл США.

В данном отчете мы представляем рекомендации для акций украинских компаний, оценку которых произвели. Мы оцениваем потенциал роста, исходя из допущений необходимости преодоления спрэда целиком и обесценивания гривны на 15-20% в следующем году - эффективный потенциал роста. Бета, ликвидность, долговое плечо, эффективный потенциал роста - мы видим их главными факторами трейдинга на текущем рынке.

Англоязычная вресия отчета

Over at least the next six months, we are going to see extremely low and economically unjustified valuations. The local Ukrainian stock market will lack the fuel for sustainable appreciation, if any, as funds unload their portfolios and some close altogether. By our estimates, the outflow from EM equity funds over November-December will reach USD 10 bln, increasing the total tally for the year to USD 50 bln.

In this report we introduce recommendations for Ukrainian equities from our coverage universe. We set upsides assuming crossing the full spread and expected local currency depreciation of 15-20% next year - Upside Effective. Beta, Liquidity, Leverage, Upside Effective - we see these as keys to trading in the current BLUE market.

Содержание отчёта

• Part 1. Changing rules of the game
  Seize volatile market opportunities
  Ukrainian assets are trading at levels unjustified by purely economic reasons.
  Corporate profitability reached a new record high in 1H08
  Yields on Ukrainian fixed income instruments have overshot the earnings yields of Ukrainian stocks by a wide margin
  Our basis for screening stocks in coming months is to shun credit risks, and tend toward more liquid names.
  Stocks vs. Bonds
  Equities

  Fixed income
  Fixed income ideas
  1) Sovereign Eurobonds
  Ukrainian government
  2) Corporate Eurobonds with high credit quality and strong parent support
  Equity ideas
  Sector-wise
  High dividend yield
  Low P/Net Cash
  Discount to intrinsic P/E
  Corporate solvency
  Warning list
  Early bond redemptions and maturities

  Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics
  Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics (continued)
  Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics (continued)
  Corporate profitability at historic high
  1H08 results of the PFTS' top-150 companies:
  Where will profitability be in 2H08 and 2009?

  APPENDIX
  Estimation of market CoE
  Stock performance
  Sector multiples

  Part 2. BLUE market guidelines

  Little chance for market to lift in coming months
  Trading on volatility
  Taking liquidity into account gives discriminative power
  B.L.U.E. mode
  Long-term recommendations
  Models recalibrated
  Next year earnings estimates halved for our coverage universe
  BLUE(1) picks

  BUY list
  SELL list
  Ukrainian equities: recommendations (continued)
  Forecast revision summary by sector
  Key fundamental forecast revisions by company
  Key fundamental forecast revisions by company (continued)

• CHARTS
  Stock indices relative performance
  Most oversold stocks YTD
  Spread: equities earnings yield over government bond yield
  Outstanding sovereign Eurobonds
  Ukraine’s sovereign yield curve                            
  Cost of default protection, bps
  For those who see reasons to play on the steel rebound, our recommendation is exposure to metals & mining through SCM/Metinvest-related stocks: Azovstal, Avdiyivka Coke, and Enakievo Steel – among the few relatively liquid companies with little leverage. Metinvest-controlled producers, backed by the strongest integrated steel group in Ukraine, will stay in business the latest among Ukrainian sector players if global market conditions worsen under the polar negative scenario. At the same time, these stocks could react sharply to improving market fundamentals.
  Capital investment by financing sources, January - June 2008
  In 1H08, corporate profitability made another historic high

  TABLES
  Our picks
  Key market data
  Key economic data
  Upside based on franchise value model
  Franchise value model (Approach 1)
  Franchise value model (Approach 2)
  Leverage and interest coverage by industry, as of 1H08
  Key credit metrics by company
  Local bonds with maturities and put options coming due in the next 12 months
  Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics
  Results by sector
  Stock performance
  Sector multiples
  Ukrainian equities: recommendations
  Earnings revisions
  Revenue forecast revisions
  Key fundamental forecast revisions by company