Аннотация

Украинский оператор телекоммуникационных услуг «Укртелеком» сохранил свои позиции на рынке стационарной телефонной связи, и даже смог заработать на сотовом буме в 2004-2006, благодаря увеличению выручки от звонков на мобильные телефоны.

 К концу года «Укртелеком» также получил право свободно устанавливать тарифы на междугородние звонки, что позволит компании стать более конкурентоспособными на рынке.

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Ukraine's incumbent telecom operator, Ukrtelecom, retained its position in the fixed telephone market and even gained from the mobile boom in 2004-2006 due to increasing fixed-to-mobile revenues. At the end of this year, Ukrtelecom also obtained the freedom to set its long-distance (LD) tariffs independently, a measure designed to make it more competitive with mobile operators.
UTEL's local fixed telecom services will contribute to revenue growth in the first half of 2007 since local tariffs increased in 2006. No more increases in fixed telephone tariffs are expected in the mid-term as this segment is still heavily regulated by the state.
We believe that Internet and data and mobile services will become one of the most important revenue sources and profit boosters in the mid and long-term.
Although the company was included on the list of companies to be privatized in 2007, the actual prospects of UTEL's privatization in 2007 are uncertain. We believe postponing privatization limits UTEL's potential, as it needs huge investments and a significant correction to its marketing strategy, which it stands to gain from privatization.
In our valuation, we employed both a DCF model and peer comparison, but rely more on our DCF model.

Содержание отчёта

• Summary

  The Last Years of Fixed Revenue Growth

  Extensive Development Guaranteed a Stable Market Share
  Rising Revenues: Thanks to Cell Phones and New Tariffs
  Monopoly on the Deregulated Market
  Sticky FTM Tariffs to Positively Affect 2006 Sales
  2006 Local Tariff Growth: The Only Top-Line Driver for 2007
  Fixed Market Forecast Revision

  Mobile Segment: Decreasing Optimism

  Privatization: Just a Pipedream?

  On the List for 2007
  Even More Uncertainty Than Ever
  Transparency Improvements

  Valuation

  Peer Comparison: Still Traded at a Premium
  DCF Valuation

• CHARTS

  UTEL vs Indices
  Ukrainian Fixed Telecom Revenues, USD mln
  Local Calls
  Long-Distance & FTM Calls
  Internet & Data
  Fixed Telecom Drivers, (Revenue Change, yoy)
  UTEL Revenues, USD mln
  Internet & Data Revenues, USD mln
  UTEL Fixed Revenues, USD mln
  Forecasted Growth in UTEL's Mobile Subscriber Base, mln
  Price and target History, USD