Аннотация

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment case
  2. Summary
  The outlook for credit growth remains bright
  Borrow abroad to lend at home
  Earnings doubled
  Foreign acquisitions will persist in 2007, but slow afterward
  Ukrainian banks: Cheaper on strong fundamentals

  3. Valuation
  Comparative valuation
  Gordon growth model. Raiffeisen Bank Aval
  Gordon growth model. Megabank
  Gordon growth model. Bank Forum
  Gordon growth model. Faktorial Bank
  Gordon growth model. Ukrsotsbank
  Gordon growth model. Ukrinbank
  Gordon growth model. Rodovid
  Gordon growth model. Ukrgazbank

  4. Sector overview
  How much growth is ahead?
  2006: Another banner year with robust growth
  Deeper penetration, But still plenty of room
  Mortgages: The new center of gravity
  Foreigners lead the segment
  Recent legislative initiatives will support the market
  Financing the growth
  Deposits: low penetration & growing Loan/Deposit ratio
  Borrow abroad, lend at home
  Ongoing need to boost capital base
  Earnings doubled
  More retail lifts net interest income
  Entrance of foreign players enhances transparency
  ROE On The Rise
  Intense M&A activity to persist in 2007
  Acquisition Fever
  Ukrainian banks: How much for sale?

  5. Company profiles

  5.1 Factorial Bank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.2 Forum
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart
  Khreschatyk Bank
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.3 Megabank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.4 Nadra Bank
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.5 Raiffeisen Bank Aval
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.6 Rodovid Bank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.7 Ukrgazbank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.8 Ukrinbank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

  5.9 Ukrsotsbank
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Growth Rates - chart

• 6. Appendices
  Appendix 1
  Appendix 2
  Appendix 3

  CHARTS

  Performance YTD
  Ukr. bank index vs. PFTS & MSCI EM banks
  Upsides and recommendations
  ROE: Ukrainian Banks Aggregate
  P/B and Book Value growth
  P/E and Earnings growth
  Asset growth, % yoy
  Loan portfolio growth, % yoy
  Deposit growth, % yoy
  Equity growth, % yoy
  Lending vs. GDP Growth
  Loan/GDP Evolution in 2001-06
  Average "add" to Loan/GDP, 2001-06
  Mortgage loans, USD bln
  Mortgage/Total loans, %
  Mortgage lending penetration, 2006
  Residential housing construction
  Apartment prices in Kyiv, USD/sq. m
  Mortgage & term deposit interest rate
  Ukraine's key mortgage lenders*
  Mortgage & retail deposits growth
  Deposit/GDP, 2006
  Ukraine's Loan/Deposit ratio
  Ukrainian banks' foreign borrowing*, USD mln
  Ukrainian banks: Syndicated loans
  Eurobond placements
  Equity and asset growth
  Sector's capital adequacy ratio
  Retail loans
  NIM & average interest lending rate
  Net income & share capital growth, % yoy
  ROE and Return on Share capital
  Main contributors to equity growth in 2006
  Assets available for further acquisition

  TABLES

  Comparative valuation
  Raiffeisen Bank Aval - Key model assumptions, UAH mln
  Raiffeisen Bank Aval - Valuation summary
  Raiffeisen Bank Aval - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Megabank - Key model assumptions
  Megabank - Valuation summary
  Megabank - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Bank Forum - Key model assumptions
  Bank Forum - Valuation summary
  Bank Forum - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Faktorial Bank - Key model assumptions
  Faktorial Bank - Valuation summary
  Faktorial Bank - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Ukrsotsbank - Key model assumptions
  Ukrsotsbank - Valuation summary
  Ukrsotsbank - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Ukrinbank - Key model assumptions
  Ukrinbank - Valuation summary
  Ukrinbank - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Rodovid - Key model assumptions
  Rodovid - Valuation summary
  Rodovid - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Ukrgazbank - Key model assumptions
  Ukrgazbank - Valuation summary
  Ukrgazbank - Sensitivity analysis: Share price, USD

  Ukrainian banking: Key forecasts
  M&A Deals in the Ukrainian banking sector
  Private placements in the Ukrainian banking sector
  Foreign ownership penetration assumptions
  The most likely takeover candidates in 2007
  Factorial Bank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Factorial Bank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Forum - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Forum - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Khreschatyk Bank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Khreschatyk Bank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Megabank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Megabank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Nadra Bank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Nadra Bank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Raiffeisen Bank Aval - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Raiffeisen Bank Aval - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Rodovid Bank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Rodovid Bank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Ukrgazbank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Ukrgazbank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Ukrinbank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Ukrinbank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Ukrsotsbank - Income statement summary, USD mln
  Ukrsotsbank - Balance sheet summary, USD mln

  Ukraine's Top-60 banks: Balance sheet summary
  Ukraine's Top-60 banks: Income statement summary
  Ukrainian banking sector evolution