Аннотация

Содержание отчёта

• 1. INVESTMENT CASE
  2. BUSINESS PROFILE

  3. Executive summary

  Motor Sich: On the edge of a strong up-cycle
  Outlook for Motor Sich by sector
  Helicopter segment: +70% by 2015
  Airplane segment: +200% by 2016
  New markets, More opportunities
  Even a cautious outlook means great things
  Valuation summary: MSICH implied price, USD
  Acquisition target

  4. Motor Sich: Key to Russia's aeronautic ambitions
  Program to resurrect the Russian aviation sector
  Global markets bode well
  Higher demand growth from emerging markets
  Passenger aircraft in hot demand
  Cargo transportation: Growth leader
  Helicopter demand: CAGR 8.5% over 4 years
  Motor Sich's joint projects with Russia
  TB3-117 and VK-2500 series engines: Fit most Russian helicopters
  D-436 projects
  Regional passenger jets
  Be-200 Amphibian
  D-18T engines: An-124-100M Ruslan
  AI-222-25 engine: Yak-130

  5. Getting it done - corporate strategies
  All Russian assets go together

  6. Partnering with EADS
  EADS buys 10% of Irkut
  Russia's response: VTB buys 6% of EADS
  Major task: Targeting Motor Sich
  Motor Sich: Not going to roll over easily
  VK-2500: Motor Sich's golden ticket
  What does the Russian Holding mean for Motor Sich?
  ‘Motor Sich acquired by the Russian Holding' scenario - implications for minorities
  Upgrade in corporate governance
  The buyer may opt for partial asset reallocation
  No acquisition: ‘Survival-of-the-fittest' scenario

  7. Self-sufficient player
  D-36 engine for the An-74: Old, But still hot
  TV3-117 VMA SBM1 engine for the Ukrainian An-140
  Chinese projects: AI-25 family of engines
  Cooperation with India
  The MTA project
  MS-400 engines: UAV project
  A successful engine - the hen that lays golden eggs
  Motor Sich after-market business capacity
  Market is controlled by Motor Sich
  Reincarnation of an engine
  Electricity generation sets
  Gas turbines
  Other business directions
  Consumer goods
  Aviation company: Motor Sich Avia

  8. DCF valuation
  Impact of high operating leverage
  Basic model assumptions
  Common assumptions for the three scenarios:
  Specific assumptions:
  Terminal value assumptions:
  Our approach is conservative
  Scenario 1
  Scenario 2
  Scenario 3

  9. Peer valuation
  Traded peers

• 10. Appendix: Pro-forma financial statements

  CHARTS

  Sector stock performance YTD
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
  Life stage of Motor Sich key engine projects
  Revenue breakdown, 2006
  Value breakdown, USD mln
  DCF
  Peers' market multiples (2007E)
  Peer equity placements
  Russian aircraft sales forecast
  Projected Economic and Traffic Growth by region, CAGR 2007-2026
  World airplane fleet evolution forecast (30 to 120 seat niche)
  Air cargo traffic, Freight Ton Kilometers
  Helicopters world demand forecast, units p.a.
  Russian helicopters share on the world market
  Russian civil helicopter fleet 1999-2015, units
  Market response to EADS 10% acquisition of Irkut, USD
  Motor Sich in Russian aviation production chain
  Russian aircraft production plans and expected engine suppliers
  Production interconnections
  Motor Sich sales destinations
  Cash flows from investment program in an engine, USD mln p.a.
  Russian helicopters made before 2006, units
  Motor Sich*: Operating leverage at work
  ROIC dynamics in the aerospace industry
  Operating model summary, USD mln

  
  TABLES

  MARKET INFORMATION
  STOCK OWNERSHIP
  MARKET MULTIPLES
  KEY FINANCIALS, USD mln
  Russian helicopter program, units
  Regional passenger jet fleet of CIS countries
  Motor Sich's estimated orders for new engines: 2007-2012
  Global market demand for regional jets, units for the period
  Regional jet deliveries by region, units for the period
  Motor Sich's engines for Russian helicopters
  An-148 and Tu-334 profile
  Be-200 profile
  An-124 profile
  Yak-130 Profile
  Summary: How Motor Sich engines fit the Russian aviation program, units
  An-74 Profile
  An-140 profile
  Chinese trainer airplane profiles
  Summary: Motor Sich projects without Russia
  How we differ from Motor Sich management forecasts
  DCF output, UAH mln, as of May, 15
  Sensitivity analysis
  Peer financials, USD mln
  Peer multiples
  Equity placements in aircraft business
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln