Аннотация

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment Case

  2. STOCK MARKET
  1.7x yoy increase in trading volumes
  Spreads for most stocks decreased
  Performance: Private companies are outsiders

  3. PRIVATIZATION
  Postponed to 2008
  Insiders most likely to privatize
  Methods of privatization

  4. CORPORATE ISSUES
  Dividend policy: State tightens its purse strings
  Corporate conflicts: Court battles persist

  5. DEBT ISSUES
  Debt offsetting: No progress
  How will outstanding debt be repaid?
  Net debt adjustments
  Debt differences: Breakthroughs at Energorynok

  6. PROFITABILITY STUDIES
  Key profit drivers
  Reduction in excessive electricity losses: Driver of past performance
  Tariff revision: Income driver for the mid-term
  Network connection: A new profitable business direction?
  Profitability convergence of Oblenergos

  7. NEW TARIFF POLICY
  Still in the works
  A new vision of the RAB
  An aggressive approach to estimating net asset value
  More realistic approach to estimating net asset value

  8. VALUATION
  Rule of thumb for valuation: Beware of applying EV/Sales and EV/Electricity directly...
  Investment program: Determining current margins
  We advise to value by capacity
  Russian peers: Sum-of-the-parts
  Developed market peers
  Applying discounts
  Peer valuation summary
  RAB as a benchmark
  Valuation summary
  A guide to Oblenergo valuation
  Recommendations summary

• Appendix 1:
  Valuation summary for de-listed Oblenergos

  Appendix 2: Peer summaries

  Appendix 3

  Appendix 4: Financial summary

  
  CHARTS

  Monthly trading volumes, USD mln
  Trading volumes, Aug. 06-July 07, USD mln
  Performance (mid-market), 52 weeks
  Year-to-date
  Sector's excessive electricity losses and earnings, USD mln
  Portion of Oblenergos that raised their tariffs
  EBITDA margins of different groups of Oblenergos
  Fixed assets of Oblenergos, USD mln
  Accumulated depreciation in Oblenergos' balance sheets:
  Adjusted accumulated depreciation
  Negative scale effect in Oblenergos, 2006 data
  Investment program vs. EBITDA, USD mln
  Oblenergo multiples' variation coefficients
  Correlation matrix: Key EBITDA determinants, 2006 data
  Correlation with replacement value
  Valuation of Russian energy companies:
  RAB-based valuation: Implied upsides

  
  TABLES

  Bid/Ask spread
  Parameters of privatization via additional share issues: TGK-5 vs. DNEN
  Dividend payment summary, USD mln
  Accounts payable for Oblenergos with the highest debt, USD mln*
  Net debt adjustment arithmetic, USD mln (as of Mar 31, 2007)
  Oblenergos that are allowed to obtain 100% of cash flow by NERC algorithm*
  Aggregated et income difference, current and new policy
  Selected Oblenergos' implied net income vs. peers' (USD per MWh)
  Aggregated net income difference, current and new policy
  Oblenergos' possible allowed profit vs. developed market peers, USD/MWh
  Distribution business multiples:
  Sum-of the parts valuation
  Peer multiples
  Oblenergos: 2007 multiples and premiums/discounts to peers
  Oblenergos' scoring
  Implied upsides by international peers
  Explanatory power of multiples
  Valuation summary: Implied upsides
  Implied prices, USD
  Russian distribution and supply companies
  Russian CHPPs
  Developed market peers, USD mln
  Key operating data and forecasts
  Chernivtsioblenergo (CHEN)
  Chernihivoblenergo (CHEON)
  Cherkasyoblenergo (CHON)
  Dnipooblenergo (DNON)
  Donetskoblenergo (DOON)
  Kharkivoblenergo (HAON)
  Khmelnitskoblenergo (HMON)
  Khersonoblenergo (HOEN)
  Kirovogradoblenergo (KION)
  Krymenergo (KREN)
  Lvivoblenergo (LVON)
  Mykolaivoblenergo (MYON)
  Odesaoblenergo (ODEN)
  Poltavaoblenergo (POON)
  Prykarpatoblenergo (PREN)
  Sumyoblenergo (SOEN)
  Sevastopolenergo (SMEN)
  Ternopiloblenergo (TOEN)
  Vinnitsaoblenergo (VIEN)
  Volynoblenergo (VOEN)
  Zaporizhiaoblenergo (ZAON)
  Zhytomiroblenergo (ZHEN)
  Zakarpatoblenergo (ZOEN)