Аннотация

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment Summary
  Outlook: Stable growth in the mid-term
  Strong reported financials in 1H07
  Targets revised upward, Upsides evaporated
  Two BUYs

  2. Stock market
  Valuation summary

  3. Interim results and forecast revisions

  4. Strong demand vs. growing competition
  Dependency on CIS exports increases
  Demand: Favorable
  ENERGY PIPES
  NON-ENERGY PIPES
  Supply: Competition tightens
  RUSSIA
  MIDDLE-EAST & ASIA
  EUROPE
  UKRAINE
  Prices growth to slow down

  5. Company profiles

  5.1 Kominmet
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
  A likely acquisition target
  Privat to divest Kominet
  Production increase outperforms sector average
  Product quality improves due to facilities upgrades
  Reporting standards improve at a hobbling gait
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)

  5.2 Novomoskovsk Pipe
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
  Strong 1H07 results, Solid prospects
  Profitability surged closer to industry leaders
  2007 production forecast revised upward
  Increasing capacity and improving product mix
  Share buyback is possible
  Focus on MD & SD pipes
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model

  5.3 Nyzhnyodniprovsky
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
  Weaker financials, Seeking new markets
  Higher sales, lower margins
  OHF to be idled: Profitability to decrease after 2009
  Stable production growth in the mid-term
  Penetrating into CIS and Middle Eastern markets
  Preparing for Interpipe's IPO: Buyout offer
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model

  5.6 Dnipropetrovsk Pipe
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
  Higher competition threatens sales
  Production dropped in 8M07
  OCTG pipe production delayed until 2008
  Shaky reported financials
  Key forecasts
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)

  5.7 Khartsyzk Pipe
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
  Bright mid-term, bumpy road beyond
  Sales to Russia secured only in mid-term
  Nord Stream deliveries: To be or not to be
  Diversified markets needed to meet production targets
  New up-to-date LD pipe production line adds optimism
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)

  6. Appendices
  Appendix 1: Comparative valuation
  Appendix 2: Key peer financials
  Appendix 3: Russian oil & gas projects

  7. Analyst Certification

• CHARTS

  Stock performance, YTD
  Ukrainian Pipe Index, PFTS & Traded Stocks YTD
  Ukrainian pipe index vs PFTS
  Trading vol. vs price growth, YTD
  Trading vol. and PFTS index
  Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Price vs 100 days moving average
  Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Spread, %
  Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
  Khartsyzk Pipe - Price and 100 days moving average
  Khartsyzk Pipe - Spread, %
  Khartsyzk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
  Novomoskovsk Pipe - Price vs 100 days moving average
  Novomoskovsk Pipe - Spread, %
  Novomoskovsk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
  Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Price and 100 days moving average
  Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Spread, %
  Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
  Kominmet - Price vs 100 days moving average
  Kominmet - Spread, %
  Kominmet - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
  Upsides and recommendations
  1H07 Sales growth vs EBITDA margin
  Ukrainian pipes - Sales by region, ths mt
  Ukrainian pipes - Export by category, ths mt
  Ukrainian pipe export breakdown by type and country
  GDP growth 2006-2010, % CAGR
  Oil and gas consumption in APR
  Construction growth, %
  Industrial production growth, %
  Russian pipe production
  Monthly Ukrainian pipe production, ths mt
  Ukrainian export pipe prices, USD/mt
  CIS pipe price growth in 7M07, yoy
  Breakdown of Kominmet's product mix
  Sales and EBITDA margin
  Selling vs. domestic pipe prices, USD/mt*
  Novomoskovsk Pipe production, ths mt
  Ukrainian pipe production growth in 8M07
  Breakdown of products
  Export structure in 2006
  Effect of OCTG pipe production on product portfolio
  Russian demand for LD welded pipes, ths mt
  Russian LD welded pipes production vs. capacity, ths mt
  Khartsyzk monthly output, ths mt
  Khartsyzk target for 2H07, ths mt

  
  TABLES

  Target price & recommendation revisions:
  Forecast revisions
  Upcoming events to change sector in mid-term
  Russian pipe projects
  Asian greenfield projects
  Growth in Ukrainian pipe destinations, 5M07
  Investment projects
  Privat's steel assets
  Kominmet - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 70% probability)
  Kominmet - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 30% probability)
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  Novomoskovsk Pipe financials
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe financials
  Key forecast revisions
  DCF model
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 70% probability)
  Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 30% probability)
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  Khartsyzk Pipe - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 60% probability)
  Khartsyzk Pipe - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 40% probability)
  DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
  Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
  TMK as a Benchmark
  Russian Peers
  GEM Peers
  Developed Market Peers
  Appendix 2: Key peer financials
  Appendix 3: Russian oil & gas projects