Аннотация

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment Summary

  2. Investment Opportunities
  ENMZ
  DMPZ
  AZST
  DMZP

  3. Stock market monitor

  4. Valuation summary

  5. Local M&A activity is on the rise
  The largest-ever Ukrainian M&A shook up the sector
  Hawks and doves
  HAWKS
  DOVES
  PRIVAT: LEAVING THE BOAT
  Big talks have started
  Industrial Union of Donbas
  Midland Resources
  Sorting players by acquisition attractiveness

  6. Efficiency: Room for improvement
  Gas issue - Not a problem
  Efficiency programs are on track

  7. Market outlook: Favorable for a few
  Production driven by integrated producers
  Export outlook: Upbeat
  Competing for the domestic market
  Growth in long prices outperforms flat products

  8. Cleaning up reported financials

  9. Forecast revisions

  10. Valuation
  Comparison with Russian peers
  Comparison with international peers
  Comparison with international specialty steel producers

  11. Company profiles

  11.1 Enakievo Steel
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Pig Iron Output - chart

  11.2 Donetsk Metal Rolling
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Steel Products Output - chart

  11.3 Azovstal
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  11.4 DMP Petrovskogo Steel
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Steel Products Output - chart

  11.5 MMK Illicha Steel
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  11.6 Dniprospetsstal
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  11.7 Alchevsk Iron & Steel
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  11.8 Donetsk Steel Plant
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Steel Products Output - chart

  11.9 Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  11.10 Zaporizhstal
  INVESTMENT CASE
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIO - table
  Crude Steel Output - chart

  12. Appendix: Domestic steel group snapshots
  Metinvest Holding
  Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih
  Industrial Union of Donbas
  Illych Stal
  Privat group
  Vtorsyrovina
  Donetskstal group
  Midland group

  13. Analyst Certification

• CHARTS

  Ukrainian Steel Index vs. PFTS
  Stocks performance, YTD
  Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Spread, %
  Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Azovstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Azovstal - Spread, %
  Azovstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Spread, %
  Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Enakievo Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Enakievo Steel - Spread, %
  Enakievo Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
  DMK Petrovskogo - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  DMK Petrovskogo - Spread, %
  DMK Petrovskogo - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Dniprospetsstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Dniprospetsstal - Spread, %
  Dniprospetsstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Donetsk Metal Rolling - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Donetsk Metal Rolling - Spread, %
  Donetsk Metal Rolling - Trading volumes, ths mln
  MMK Illicha Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  MMK Illicha Steel - Spread, %
  MMK Illicha Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Donetsk Steel Plant - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Donetsk Steel Plant - Spread, %
  Donetsk Steel Plant - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Zaporizhstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
  Zaporizhstal - Spread, %
  Zaporizhstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
  Recommendations and upsides
  12M target price vs. market multiples implied prices range, USD per share
  Metinvest and SCM-related metals & mining assets on the map
  Metinvest Holding - production as % of Ukrainian total*, ths mt
  Metinvest Holding - crude steel production, ths mt
  Integration by company, %
  EBITDA margin of Privat's steel assets, %
  Gas consumption in blast furnace and steel smelting processes, mln m3 p.a.
  Crude steel production by process, %
  Energy charge in pig iron smelting
  Steel consumption by region growth
  GDP growth 2006-2010, % CAGR
  Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Total (down 2.9% yoy)
  Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Long products (up 7.8% yoy)
  Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Semi-finished products (down 8.6% yoy)*
  Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Flat products (down 3.1% yoy)
  Ukrainian steel consumption, ths mt - breakdown by product
  Ukrainian steel consumption, ths mt - forecast by 2015
  Ukrainian steel prices, USD/mt - Export (Black Sea, FOB)
  Ukrainian steel prices, USD/mt - Domestic*
  1H07 sales growth by contributor, %
  Steel prices growth in 1H07, % YOY
  Transfer pricing vs EBITDA margin, % (1H06 vs 1H07)
  P/E vs. Sales growth ‘08E
  EV/S vs. EBITDA mgn

  
  TABLES

  Programs aimed at increasing efficiency
  Investment programs
  Ukrainian rolled steel production growth in 1H07
  Ukrainian crude steel production by 2012E, mln mt
  1H07 Ukrainian steel financials and 8M07 production of rolled steel
  Financial revisions
  Upsides/downsides implied by market multiples
  Comparison with Russian peers
  Comparison with international peers
  Comparison with international specialty steel producers
  Metinvest Holding
  Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih
  Industrial Union of Donbas
  Illych Stal
  Privat group
  Vtorsyrovina
  Donetskstal group
  Midland group