Аннотация

На в Украине дистрибуция электричества регулируется государством. 28 компаний (ОблЭнерго и две специализированные компании), составляют 97% дистрибуции и 80% поставок электричесва в Украине.
Улучшение работы большинства ОблЭнерго отразилось в подъеме цены акций на ПФТС за последние 52 недели более чем на 300% .
Недавние изменения в отрасли:
• Национальная комиссия регулирования электроэнергетики Украины приняла инвестиционные программы компаний на 2008 год. Рост составляет от 20% до 100% по сравнению с 2007 годом. Увеличение инвестпрограмм облэнерго отразится позитивно на увеличении чистой прибыли компании.
• Отсутствие изменений в объемах кредиторской задолженности позволяет предположить, что облэнерго с большими объемами долгов будут искать способы реструктуризации долгов в долгосрочные в 2008 году. Мы перешли к более консервативному расчету чистого долга облэнерго. 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Ukrainian electricity distribution is state regulated. The 28 licensed distribution & supply companies account for 97% of electricity distribution and 80% of electricity supply in Ukraine.

Operating improvements by most electricity distribution companies were rewarded with a more than 300% over the last 52 weeks on the local stock market.

Recent industry changes:

• Electricity distribution companies` investment programs for 2008 recently adopted by the sector regulator, which are xx%-xx% larger than in 2007, suggest companies` management expect to generate xx%-xx% higher profits in 2008.

• No shifts in decreasing accounts payable suggest that electricity distribution companies which are highly in debt will seek long-term debt restructuring sometime in 2008. We now use a more conservative approach to calculate their net debt.

Our approach for valuing electricity distribution companies was developed in our August report: we weight peer multiples and RAB valuation to arrive at 12M targets, giving more weight to a multiple in proportion to its explanatory power as a key electricity distribution company's value/liquidity determinant.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Recent industry changes
  Performance, 52 week
  PFTS vs. Oblenergo index*
  Total 52wk trading volumes, USD mln

  2. Top picks
  WATCH:
  Summary

  3. Stock market: "Golden mean" performed better
  52 week performance* vs. profitability

  4. Interim results: No surprises
  9M07 results summary
  Convergence in profitability: faster than we expected
  EBITDA margin of different groups: 9M06,9M07

  5. Increase in investment, Increase in welfare
  Increase of investment program, 2008/2007

  6. Debt issue: Hope for restructuring?
  Account payable statistics
  Net debt adjustments
  Account receivable statistics, Sept. 30, 2007

  7. Scoring: Still converging toward the best
  Updated scoring

  8. Valuation
  Explanatory power* of parameters
  Peer comparison
  Peer data
  Peer multiples, 2008E
  Oblenergo data, USD mln
  Oblenergo multiples
  RAB (Regulatory Asset Base)
  RAB calculation, USD mln
  Valuation summary
  Valuation summary

  9. Donetskoblenergo: A special case
  High bankruptcy risk requires special treatment
  We value Donetskoblenergo using a scenario analysis, refer to the next section.Valuation of DOON: Scenario analysis
  Valuation of DOON: Scenario analysis
  Scenario 1: Restructuring with compensation. Probability: 20%
  Scenario 2: Restructuring without compensation. Probability: 50%
  Scenario 3: Bankruptcy. Probability: 30%
  Scenario weighting

  10. Analyst Certification
  11. Sector report history