Аннотация

Наиболее весомые фундаментальные показатели сектора недвижимости в Украине создали благоприятную обстановку для отечественных девелоперов, которые продолжают выходить на зарубежные фондовые рынки. В предложенном исследовании мы сконцентрировали внимание на количественном сравнении проектных портфелей девелоперов.

Инвесторы на Украине в недвижимости склоняются к концентрированию их внимания на размере проектных портфелей. С наполнением сектора новыми акциями, данный подход в выборе акций становится менее эффективным. Мы представляем набор инструментов в данном отчете , которые предоставят больше информации инвестору для выбора решения. Инструменты учитывают качество портфеля и рассматривают риски относительно срывов расписания строительств, терминов денежных потоков, концентрации и чувствительности к вышеописанным допущениям. Мы сравниваем проектные портфели украинских девелоперов, используя унифицированный подход. 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Solid real estate industry fundamentals in Ukraine have created a favorable environment for domestic developers who are increasingly tapping the international equity market. With the arrival of several new placements, the issue of increased guidance in the sector is coming to the forefront and with this in mind our report is focused on a quantitative comparison of the developers' project portfolios.

Ukrainian real estate investors tend to focus their attention on the size of project portfolios. With new stocks flooding into the sector, this approach is becoming less effective in stock selection. In this report, we introduce a set of metrics that will help investors make a more informed choice. The metrics take into account portfolio quality and consider its risk characteristics related to construction schedule feasibility, cash flow timing, concentration and sensitivity to underlying assumptions. We compare the project portfolios of Ukraine's public developers using the same uniform approach

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment thesis
  Investment summary
  Portfolio risk and feasibility gauged
  Core findings on stocks covered
  What investors want: Value appreciation vs. cash generation
  Stock performance, YTD
  Stock performance, USD
  Real estate indices, YTD
  Sector summary

  2. Market overview
  Macro background
  Kyiv real estate market
  Retail market
  Office market
  Warehousing market
  Residential market
  Hotel market
  Regional real estate market
  Key domestic players
  Completed and projected development in Ukrainian real estate market by leading domestic players, ths m2
  Foreign entrants mounting

  3. Stock market: What's on the menu?
  New names emerging
  Placement statistics
  Funds raised through equity placements*, USD mln
  Growth in the pipeline
  Free float of Ukrainian real estate stocks, USD mln
  Free float breakdown, Dec 07
  XXI Century MCap and NAV
  TMM MCap and NAV
  P/NAV for XXI Century
  P/NAV for TMM
  Selection an issue
  Ukrainian real estate stock market

  4. Portfolio analysis
  Portfolio feasibility and risk
  Findings
  Project management metrics
  Valuation risk metrics
  Cash flow and sensitivity analysis
  XXI Century
  TMM
  TKS
  Construction schedule comparison
  XXI Century
  TMM
  TKS

  5. Valuation
  Valuation summary
  Target price derivation*, USD mln
  Note on XXI Century's valuation
  DCF mechanics
  Major assumptions
  WACC assumptions
  XXI Century: Impact of financing availability on value
  XXI Century 12M targets sensitivity to funds attracted, USD mln
  Portfolio value evolution, USD bln

  6. Reading financial statements
  Accounting differences
  Companies' financials, USD mln
  XXI Century financials restatement, USD mln

  7. Company profiles
  7.1 TKS
  Investment case
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Key financials, USD mln
  Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
  Share price performance*
  Business overview
  TKS portfolio
  TKS Income statement summary, USD mln
  TKS Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  TKS Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
  UAH/USD Exchange rates
  Investment case
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Key financials, USD mln
  Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
  Share price performance*

  7.2 TMM
  Business overview
  TMM portfolio
  TMM Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  TMM Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  TMM Cash Flow Statement Summary, USD mln
  UAH/USD Exchange Rates
  Investment case
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Key financials, USD mln
  Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
  Share price performance*

  7.3 XXI Century
  Business overview
  XXI Century portfolio
  XXI Century Income Statement Summary*, USD mln
  XXI Century Balance Sheet Summary*, USD mln
  XXI Century Cash Flow Statement Summary*, USD mln

  8. Legal environment
  Ownership
  Mortgage financing
  Leasing
  Construction activities
  Taxation

• 9. Appendices
  Appendix A: TKS project DCF analysis, USD mln
  Appendix B: TMM project DCF analysis, USD mln
  Appendix C: XXI Century project DCF analysis, USD mln

  10. Investment ratings