Аннотация

Исследование "Украинское железнодорожное машиностроение" призвано осветить вопросы конкурентоспособность и перспективы развития отрасли. 

Среднесрочная перспектива: Высокий спрос и слабая конкуренция

Пять отечественных производителей вагонов продолжают извлекать выгоду из избыточного спроса на замкнутом рынке СНГ, отмечая средний рост продаж за 9 месяцев 2007 на 48% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года. Спрос стимулируется ростом в перевозке грузов, высокими потребностями в замене старых  вагонов, и появлением новых финансовых каналов, таких как лизинг. Мы оцениваем, что спрос на вагоны будет расти до 2011 и пронозируем рост общих доходов украинских вагоностроителей в 2007-2010.

Долгосрочная перспектива: Потребность в диверсификации

Наличие широкого товарного микса будет иметь особую важность через 3-4 года, когда будут запущены новые производственные линии в СНГ. Мариупольский завод тяжелого машиностроения наиболее защищен от непостоянства спроса на вагоны, тогда, как доходы Днепровагонмаша,  специализирующегося только на вагонах, скорее всего, снизятся после 2010.

Корпоративная активность будет поддерживать состояние отрасли

Мы ожидаем увидеть размещение акций украинскими производителями вагонов в ближайшие 12-18 месяцев. Следует следить за новостями всех пяти публично торгуемых компаний сектора. Растущая важность украинских вагоностроителей для рынка СНГ делает их привлекательными целями для поглощения для русских игроков – главными кандидатами являются Азовмаш (объединяющий Азовзагальмаш и Мариупольский завод тяжелого машиностроения) и Днепровагонмаш.

Высокие прибыли заслуживают качественной оценки

После динамики, исчисляемой трезначными числами в 2007, украинские вагоностроители торгуются на уровне 1.2x EV/Sales '07, вплотную к схожим компаниям на развивающихся рынках. Благодаря неэластичности спроса по цене, украинские производители удержат показатель EBITDA в среднем в 1.2-1.4 раза выше схожих компаний на развивающихся рынках, оправдывая солидную оценку по EV/Sales. 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Mid-term outlook: High demand & low competition

The five domestic railcar producers continued to benefit from excess demand in the insulated CIS market, posting 48% yoy higher aggregated sales in 9M07. Demand is being stimulated by a rise in freight transportation (up 4-8% CAGR over the last three years), high replacement needs (up to xx% of CIS freight railcars are past their recommended service life), and the emergence of new financing channels such as leasing. We estimate demand for railcars will remain robust until 2011 and forecast xx% increase in the aggregated revenues of the five Ukrainian railcar producers over 2007-2010.

Long-term outlook: Diversification is an issue

Having a broad product mix will gain additional importance in 3-4 years when new railcar production capacities come on-stream in the CIS (increasing production capacity +xx% from 2006). Mariupol Heavy Machinery (xx% of sales are from wagons) is best protected from volatility in demand for railcars, while the revenues of pure wagon producer Dniprovahonmash are likely to decline after 2010.

Corporate activity will keep the sector hot

We expect to see share offerings by Ukrainian railcar producers in the next 12-18 months. All five stocks in our coverage are to be watched closely. Consolidation will become more visible, both domestically and cross-border. Ukrainian wagon manufacturers' growing importance on the CIS market makes them attractive takeover targets for Russian players - the main candidates are Azovmash (Azovzahalmash and Mariupol Heavy Machinery) and Dniprovahonmash.

High margins deserve premium valuations

After triple digit performance in 2007, Ukrainian railcar makers trade close to their emerging market peers at around 1.2x EV/Sales '07. With low price-elasticity of CIS demand for railcars in the midterm, Ukrainian producers will keep their EBITDA margins 1.2-1.4x above the EM peer average, justifying premium valuations by EV/Sales.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment Thesis
  Investment summary
  Investment opportunities
  Stock Market Monitor
  Ready for the third wave

  2. Railcar market overview
  Railcar demand snapshot
  PICKING UP STEAM, GROWTH PROJECTED AT 10% CAGR THROUGH 2012
  CIS DEMAND SPLIT
  View on demand: 3x3
  Three orders drivers
  Three freight railcar consumers
  Three main countries
  RUSSIA
  UKRAINE
  KAZAKHSTAN
  Implications of CIS market insulation
  Wagon producers' pricing power
  Assembly Parts: Deficit of casting
  WHERE HAS ALL THE CASTING GONE?
  OTHER INPUTS
  Competition and supply
  Main market players
  Competitive advantages
  SPECIALIZATION
  QUALITY
  State protection of Russian producers

  3. Consolidation in the railway industry
  Corporate evolution
  All for IPO, Few for takeover
  AWASH WITH TALK OF IPOs
  ACQUISITIONS IN THE OFFING?
  Profitability analysis

  4. Company Profiles

  4.1 Azovzahalmash
  Key forecasts
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  DCF Valuation
  Valuation summary

  4.2 Mariupol Heavy Machinery
  Key forecasts
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  DCF Valuation
  Valuation summary
  AZGM & MZVM: Two companies in one plant
  Shareholder structure of Azovmash
  Reconsolidation of Azovmash?
  AZGM vs MZVM: What is the difference?
  Production specialization: AZGM focuses on railcars
  Differences in ownership structure: AZGM looks like a favorite

  4.3 Stakhaniv Wagon
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  The fastest growing Ukrainian wagon producer
  Capital increases
  CapEx program to support production growth
  Relaunching production of metal construction
  Casting used to limit growth
  Part of KRAZ holding?
  Key forecasts
  DCF Valuation
  Valuation summary

  4.4 Kryukiv Wagon
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  Corporate changes expected
  Product mix
  Key forecasts
  DCF Valuation
  Valuation summary

  4.5 Dniprovahonmash
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  New owner, new financial outlook
  Product mix
  Key forecasts
  DCF Valuation
  Valuation summary

• 5. Appendices
  Appendix A: Comparative valuation
  Appendix B: Key peer financials
  Appendix C: Railcar specifications and functions

  6. Disclosures
  7. Investment Ratings

  
  CHARTS

  Stocks Performance, 12M
  Sector Performance, 12M
  Indices Performance, 12M
  Upside, %
  Azovzahalmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Dniprovahonmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Kryukiv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Railcar producers' performance and trading volumes, 2007
  Average multiples for railcar producers, 2008E
  Demand for freight railcars, ths units
  Freight wagons' demand split, ths units, 2007-2015
  Cargo transportation breakdown, mln mt 2006, %
  Growth in freight turnover and GDP
  Percentage of railcar fleet past service life
  Russian leasing market for rolling stock, USD bln
  Consumers' activity in cargo wagons purchase in CIS
  Cargo carried by rail in Ukraine and Russia in 2006
  FSU freight railcar split, 2006
  Russian freight railcar fleet evolution forecast, ths units
  Ukrainian freight railcar fleet evolution forecast, ths units
  Kazakhstan freight railcars fleet evolution forecast, ths units
  Average tank car wagon, casting and rolled steel price growth, YTD 2007 as of Nov.1
  Ukrainian railway producers: market shares in CIS
  Railcar output by Ukrainian and Russian producers, ths units
  Azovzahalmash sales split, USD mln
  Azovzahalmash. Profitability forecasts
  Azovzahalmash. Valuation results, USD per share
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery sales breakdown, USD mln
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Profitability forecasts
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery valuation results, USD per share
  Ownership structure of Azovmash-related companies
  Sales split of AZGM and MZVM, USD ths
  Ukrainian railcar producers' sales growth yoy
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Profitability forecasts
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
  Kryukiv Wagon. Shareholders structure, 2006
  Kryukiv Wagon. Sales split, 2006
  Kryukiv Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
  Kryukiv Wagon. Profitability forecasts
  Kryukiv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
  Dniprovahonmash. Sales, EBITDA and net income, USD mln
  Dniprovahonmash. Sales destination
  Dniprovahonmash. Sales forecasts, USD mln
  Dniprovahonmash. Profitability forecasts
  Dniprovahonmash. Valuation results, USD per share

  
  TABLES

  Key ratios
  Key financials, 9M07, USD mln
  State railway programs
  Main CIS casting producers
  CIS wagon producer profiles
  CIS railcar producers capacity outlook, ths units
  Ownership of Ukrainian railcar producers
  Ukrainian railcar producers financials
  Ukrainian railcar producers' expenses, common size
  Azovzahalmash. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
  Azovzahalmash. DCF Sensitivity analysis
  Azovzahalmash. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Azovzahalmash. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery. DCF sensitivity analysis
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Mariupol Heavy Machinery Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Forecast revisions for Stakhaniv Wagon
  Stakhaniv Wagon DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
  Stakhaniv Wagon DCF Sensitivity analysis
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Stakhaniv Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Kryukiv Wagon's production line
  Kryukiv Wagon. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
  Kryukiv Wagon. DCF Sensitivity analysis
  Kryukiv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Kryukiv Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Dniprovahonmash. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
  Dniprovahonmash. DCF Sensitivity analysis
  Dniprovahonmash. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Dniprovahonmash. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Comparative valuation
  Key peer financials