Аннотация

Шансы на перемену ключевых положений в регуляции отрасли возрастают, что дает нам возможность рекласификации газовых распределительных компаний как следующую «фишку» среди инвестиционных возможностей. Скупка компаний стратегическими российскими инвесторами уже достигла критической отметки за последние два года, достаточной для проведения реформы. Мы ожидаем первые знаки улучшения в начале 2008-го года.

«Русские пришли»

Мы видим убедительные знаки того, что Газпром обеспечил позиции в более чем трети украинских газораспределительных компаний, хотя официально эта информация не  подтверждается. За последние два года в 5 других дистрибуторах газа контроль получил другой русский игрок, ГазЭКС, принадлежащий Виктору Вексельбергу. 

Активность в слияниях и поглощениях будет главным катализатором акций

Оставаясь неликвидным, рынок все же позитивно отреагировал на поглощения в 2007. Стимулирование к дальнейшим сделкам и ожидание улучшений в регулировании могут расшевелить газовую отрасль в 2008-2009.

Улучшения в регулировании могут раскрыть стоимость компаний в ближайшее время

Главные ограничения стоимости компаний в отрасли на сегодня: низкая рентабельность и отсутсвие долгосрочных соглашений, могут быть устранены в 2008. Повышение тарифов до 45% и ужесточение государством финансового контроля помогут большинству компаниям стать прибыльными уже в этом году. Подписание концессионных соглашений, которые старательно лоббируются новыми стратегическими инвесторами, должно принести больше позитивных новостей.

Тарифная реформа – долгосрочный рычаг стоимости компаний

Изменение системы тарифов с затратно-ориентированого на активо-ориентированный подход наподобие реформы облэнерго, откроет истинную стоимость газораспределительных компаний в долгосрочной перспективе. Сопоставление с компаниями, ценообразование которых основано на RAB-методологии (украинские дистрибуторы энергии и газовые дистрибуторы Чехии), обещает значительное увеличение капитализации компаний в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе. 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Heightened chances to see an overhaul of key regulations in the sector lead us to reclassify Gas Distribution companies as the next "it" investment opportunity. The entrance of strategic Russian investors over the last two years reached a critical mass that can force reform; the first signs of improvement could be visible as early as 2008.

Russians move in
We see conclusive signals that Gazprom has secured positions in a good third of the Ukrainian GasCos, though it has not officially confirmed this yet. Over the last two years, five other domestic gas distributors were locked up by another Russian player, GazEKS, which is related to Viktor Vekselberg. We believe the sizable Russian presence in the sector will trigger regulatory improvements.

Accelerating M&A activity to be main catalyst
Though illiquid, the market reacted positively to the sector's acquisitive action in 2007. Incitement from further takeover deals and the anticipation of regulatory improvements are likely to mature the GasCo industry over 2008-2009.

Regulatory improvements to unlock value in short-term
The industry's main value restrictions to date, low profitability and a lack of long-term network operation agreements, are expected to be removed in 2008. Up to a 45% increase in tariffs and toughening financial control by the state will force most gas distribution companies to start reporting positive profits already this year. The signing of network concession agreements, which have been extensively lobbied for by new strategic investors, should bring more positives.

Tariff reform is a long-term value driver
Shifting tariffs from cost-based to asset-based calculation, similar to the transition underway in the electricity distribution sector, will unveil value in gas distribution companies in the long run. Benchmarking to companies with RAB pricing (Ukrainian electricity distributors and Czech gas distributors) promises a xx to xx potential capitalization increase in the mid to long-term.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  Investment case

  2. STOCK MARKET
  Stock market monitor
  Embryonic market on the verge of improving liquidity

  3. OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE: RUSSIANS GAIN A FOOTHOLD
  Changes in ownership map: Russians in
  Russia sets the game rules in the sector

  4. REGULATORY IMPROVEMENTS AHEAD
  45% tariff adjustment in 2008 expected
  Fundamental sector reforms

  5. FINANCIAL RESULTS
  Reported profits surge
  Debt revision

  6. VALUATION
  Peer valuation
  Asset-based valuation

  7. COMPANY PROFILES

  7.1 Donetskoblgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.2 Khmelnitskgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.3 Kyivoblgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.4 Lvivgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.5 Iv.-Frankivskgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.6 Kirovohradgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.7 Dnipropetrovskgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.8 Odesagaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.9 Zhytomyrgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

  7.10 Kharkivgaz
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Revenue structure
  Key financials
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples

• APPENDIX: M&A monitor

  CHARTS

  SECTOR PERFORMANCE 12M
  Khmelnitskgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Kyivoblgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Donetskoblgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Ivano-Frankivskgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Lvivgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Kirovohradgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Comparative Markets (all data in USD mln)
  GasCo bid prices, 12M change
  Map of GasCos control by group, spring 2007
  Map of GasCos control by group, end 2007
  EBITDA margins 2007E: Russian vs Ukrainian GasCos
  Distribution tariff benchmark by countries, USD/ ths km
  GasCos' revenue and cost structure*, USD mln
  Age breakdown of Ukrainian gas distribution network, number of years
  Gas network expansion pipeline
  Aggregate net income of state-controlled Oblenergos, USD mln

  
  TABLES

  SECTOR PERFORMANCE 12M
  Khmelnitskgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Kyivoblgaz
  MARKET INFORMATION*
  STOCK MARKET DATA
  FINANCIAL RESULTS, 9M07 USD mln
  Valuation summary, USD
  GasCo stock universe on the PFTS
  M&A candidates
  Aggregate gas distribution network ownership
  P&L forecasts
  Net debt adjustment as of October 1, 2007, USD mln
  Russian peers: net debt adjustment, USD mln
  Peer valuation: Russian comparables
  Czech peers
  Ukrainian electricity companies
  RAB-based valuation
  . Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Donetskoblgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Ivano-Frankivskgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Lvivgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Kirovohradgaz. Stock performance Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD ths
  Comparative Markets (all data in USD mln)
  GasCo bid prices, 12M change
  Map of GasCos control by group, spring 2007
  Map of GasCos control by group, end 2007
  EBITDA margins 2007E: Russian vs Ukrainian GasCos
  Distribution tariff benchmark by countries, USD/ ths km
  GasCos' revenue and cost structure*, USD mln
  Age breakdown of Ukrainian gas distribution network, number of years
  Gas network expansion pipeline
  Aggregate net income of state-controlled Oblenergos, USD mln