Аннотация

Украина откроет свои границы для импорта 260 тыс тонн тростникового сахара, начиная с 2009 года по  соглашениям ВТО (импортный тариф уменьшится с 50% до 2% от таможенной стоимости). Ожидается, что тростниковый сахар частично заменит свекольный сахар, поставляемый на рынок небольшими производителями. Мы также ожидаем, что вступление в ВТО станет рычагом для увеличения внутренних цен на зерно, составляющее побочный бизнес для украинских сахаро-производителей. Мы прогнозируем рост цен на зерно до мирового уровня, так как Украина увеличила экспортную квоту в соответствии с требованиями ВТО.

Мы ожидаем, что неэффективные игроки продолжат выходить из сахарного бизнеса. Неспособные наладить достаточные уровни поставок сырья, 10 сахарных заводов не начали работу в 2007/2008 сезоне, и мы ожидаем, что еще 35 будут либо закрыты, либо проданы еще до начала следующего сезона. Мы верим, что производители сахара с собственным сырьем имеют отличные позиции захватить большую долю рынка.

Англоязычная версия отчета 

In accordance with WTO agreements, Ukraine will open its borders to 260 ths mt of imported raw cane sugar starting from 2009 (the import duty on which will reduce from 50% currently to 2% of the customs value). We expect this feedstock will partially replace sugar beets sold to sugar makers by small-scale farms. We also expect WTO accession to trigger growth in Ukraine's domestic prices for grain, constituting a side business for Ukraine's sugar-makers. We project grain prices to rise and converge with those at international exchanges as Ukraine gradually lifts export quota restrictions in line with WTO requirements.

Investors increasingly view Ukrainian sugar stocks as plays on agriculture rather than pure sugar thanks to the vast land banks sugar producers lease. It is our view that the value of sugar makers' agricultural operations, elevated recently by surging agricultural commodity prices, sets a floor for the companies' value and provides a hedge against possible adversities in the sugar business.

We expect inefficient players to continue leaving the business. Unable to secure sufficient feedstock supplies, ten sugar mills did not relaunch in 2007/08 season, and we expect 35 more will either be shut or acquired before next season. We believe that sugar producers with in-house beet supplies are well-positioned to seize a larger market share.

Our DCF-based target prices yield upsides for all the three traded sugar producers. A reality check using peer comparison shows that DCF-implied target prices are inside the range offered by EV/EBITDA and P/E 2009E multiples.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment thesis
  Investment summary
  Investment cases
  Stock market monitor
  Outpacing the market
  Sugar or land: What comes first?
  Case study. Dakor: value-added sugar producing capacities
  Relative valuation

  2. Sugar markets
  Global sugar prices gaining momentum
  Ukraine: Beginning of the recovery
  Reduced supply to trigger sugar price growth in 2008
  WTO effect : cane sugar to meet only 12% of demand
  Future of Ukraine's sugar prices
  Weak players are out

  3. Land bet
  Soaring prices for crops add value for sugar-makers
  Getting land ownership

  4. Company profiles

  4.1 Astarta (AST PW)
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Key forecasts
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  DCF model
  DCF model sensitivity analysis
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln

  4.2 Dakor (DAKOR UZ)
  Key forecasts
  Revenues: Crops to reveal potential
  Cost trends: Efficiency increase evident
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Key forecasts
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  DCF model
  DCF model sensitivity analysis
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln

  4.3 Ukrros (UROS UZ)
  Investment case
  Business overview
  Key forecasts
  Market information
  Stock ownership
  Corporate governance
  Share price performance
  Market multiples
  Key ratios
  DCF model
  DCF model sensitivity analysis
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln

  5. Analyst Certification
  Investment Ratings

• CHARTS

  Stock performance
  Stock Performance, 12M*
  Trading volumes, USD ths
  Astarta. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Dakor. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Ukrros. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
  Concorde Sugar Producers Index* vs. PFTS
  Sugar vs wheat prices, USD/mt
  Sugar vs oil prices, USD/mt
  Calculation of price of sugar, imported to Ukraine
  Sugar prices: Ukraine and the world
  Distribution of mills by days in operation
  Sugar production breakdown, 2007/08 season
  Change in market shares, pp, 2007/08 vs 2006/07 seasons
  Dakor's agricultural business
  Dakor's crops' yields, mt/ha
  Beet cultivation & transportation, USD/mt of sugar*
  Beets processing, USD/mt of sugar*
  Change in production cost components, 2007/08 to 2006/07, USD/mt

  
  TABLES

  Key ratios. 2007E
  Sugar makers vs pure crop producers
  Commodity prices
  Relative valuation
  Ukrainian sugar balance, ths mt
  Cane vs beet sugar costs
  Strategies of the market leaders
  Astarta. Key forecasts
  Astarta. DCF model
  Astarta. Sensitivity analysis
  Astarta. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Astarta. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Dakor. Revision of forecasts
  Dakor. Key forecasts
  Dakor. DCF model
  Dakor. Sensitivity analysis
  Dakor. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Dakor. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
  Ukrros. Key forecasts
  Ukrros. DCF model
  Ukrros. Sensitivity analysis
  Ukrros. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Ukrros. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln