Аннотация

Исследование "Автомобильная промышленность в Украине" период 2005-2007 представлена с целью  проанализировать быстрое развитие украинской экономики (средний годовой темп роста реального ВВП был 6%) и увеличение спроса на перевозку (грузооборот удвоился) привело к повышению продаж новых машин на 156%. 

Описание

Солидное макроэкономическое состояние Украины (средний рост реального ВВП 6% за последние три года) обеспечило всплеск отечественного автомобилестроения. В среднесрочной перспективе мы ожидаем создания больших авто холдингов. В укрупнении могут вполне участвовать любые из торгуемых компаний. Публичное размещение холдингов послужит катализатором для отрасли. Среди торгуемых акций мы отдаем предпочтение автомобильному заводу «Богдан» (LUAZ), чей текущий план расширения, по нашим оценкам, не полностью заложен в цену акции.

Анализ и перспективы развития рынка

 Мы ожидаем, что в среднесрочном периоде, украинская автомобилестроительная отрасль испытает рост, выраженным двухзначным числом. В основе наших прогнозов лежат положительные перспективы реального располагаемого дохода (годовой рост 13% за 2008-2009), реального ВВП (7% годовой рост за 2008-2009), и грузовых и пассажирских перевозок.

Два ключевых фактора будут ограничивать рентабельность украинских автомобилестроителей: снижение импортных пошлин на автомобили на 15%-20%, вызванное вступлением Украины в ВТО и сложность переговоров с поставщиками автомобильных деталей. В то же время, производители грузовиков, меньше зависящие от зарубежных поставок, выглядят сильнее в плане защиты собственной рентабельности.

Стратегические планы холдингов, изобилующие катализаторами
В прошлом году Богдан и АвтоКрАЗ объявили стратегические планы о создании холдингов и последующем публичном размещении новых структур. Мы ожидаем первичное публичное размещение одним из автомобильных холдингов в 2008-2009. Планы владельца УкрАвто о создании автомобильного холдинга, на наш взгляд, несут высокие риски для акционеров, связанные с разбавлением активов УкрАвто. 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

Ukraine's solid macroeconomic backdrop (average growth over the last three years in real GDP at 6% and real disposable income at 16%) is providing the spark to the domestic automotive sector. On the mid-term horizon is the creation of larger auto holdings, which are likely to involve all traded names, to mixed benefit. Taking the holdings public will serve as catalysts. Our top pick in the segment is Bogdan Automobile Plant, on the strength of its current expansion plan, which we believe is not fully factored into its stock price.

Ukrainian macroeconomic backdrop paves the road

Over 2005-2007, the rapid expansion in the Ukrainian economy (real GDP growth at 6% CAGR) and accelerating transportation needs (freight turnover doubled) led to a 156% upshift in new car sales. We expect that in the mid-term, the Ukrainian automotive sector will enjoy double digit growth based on the sound outlook for real disposable income (13% annual growth over 2008-09), real GDP (7% annual growth over 2008-09), and freight and passenger transportation.

WTO & dependence on suppliers: margin constrictors

Two key factors will restrict Ukrainian car producers' margins: the 15%-25% drop in import duties for cars in 2009 as part of Ukraine's WTO accession accords and the high bargaining power of auto part suppliers. Meanwhile, with less dependence on the supply chain, truck producers (importing only xx% of parts vs xx% for car makers) will be better able to defend their margins.

Holdings' strategic plans rife with catalysts

Last year Bogdan and AvtoKrAZ announced strategic plans to create holdings and thereafter to take the new structures public. We expect IPOs by these automotive holdings over 2008-2009 to provide catalysts for underlying stocks. The plans of UkrAvto's owner to create a car distribution holding, in our view, carry high risk of asset stripping or dilution at UkrAvto.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment thesis
  Investment summary
  Ukrainian macroeconomic backdrop paves the road
  WTO & dependence on suppliers: margin constrictors
  Holdings' strategic plans rife with catalysts
  Recommendations
  Stock performance
  Stock performance, 12M*
  Trading volumes, USD ths
  Investment cases
  Bogdan. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
  AvtoKrAZ. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
  UkrAvto. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
  Stock market monitor
  Sector introduction

  2. Market overview

  2.1 Behind the wheel: market drivers
  Europe's top 10 car markets in 2007, mln units
  #1 economic growth
  Passenger and freight turnover growth
  Nominal wages vs. new car sales
  Car penetration and GDP PPP per capita in selected countries, 2006
  #2 easier auto financing
  Auto lending dynamics in Ukraine
  Transportation equipment leasing in Ukraine, USD mln
  #3 replacement needs
  Age structure of vehicles in Ukraine in 2007
  Replacement forecast: Vehicles 1997 and older to be replaced by 2015
  Fees and taxes on used imported cars, USD/100 cm3 of engine capacity
  Registration fees for cars more than eight years old
  Excise taxes on cars more than five years old

  2.2 Car sector
  Demand trends
  Sales of new cars in Ukraine, ths units
  Ukrainian car market development, mln units
  Ukrainian car producers
  Ukrainian car market split by producers, 2007
  Ukrainian car producers (2007 Production/Capacity, ths units)
  Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007
  Share of cars sold in Ukraine by price segment, 2007
  Ukrainian car producers share of the domestic new car market

  2.3 Bus sector
  Demand trends
  Ukrainian bus market in 2007
  Split by class
  Split by average price
  Ukrainian bus market development, ths units
  Sales of new buses in Ukraine, ths units
  Ukrainian bus producers
  Ukrainian bus market split by producers, 2007
  Ukrainian bus producers
  Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007

  2.4 Truck sector
  Demand trends
  Ukrainian truck market in 2007
  Split by producers
  Split by capacity
  Demand for new Ukrainian trucks, ths units
  Light trucks 3.6-8 tons
  Heavy trucks: >16 tons
  Ukrainian truck market development, ths units
  Light trucks 3.6-8 tons
  Heavy trucks: >16 tons
  Ukrainian truck producers
  Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007
  Light trucks: 3.6-8 tons
  Main heavy truck producers in CIS

  2.5 Supply chain & WTO accession: margin restrictors
  Raw materials & assembly parts
  WTO entrance: Import duties set to lower
  Ukrainian import duties on automobiles
  Summary

  3. Company profiles

  3.1 Bogdan Automobile Plant
  Bogdan's share in new vehicle sales in Ukraine, 2007, by units
  Probable process of Bogdan's consolidation
  Increasing capacity at Bogdan, number of vehicles
  Production forecasts, units
  Profitability forecasts
  DCF output for base scenario, UAH mln, as of April 2009
  Comparative valuation
  Valuation summary
  Valuation results, USD per share
  Financial Statements, IFRS
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance sheet summary, USD mln
  Cash flow statement summary, USD mln

  3.2 AvtoKrAZ
  Catalyst on the horizon: IPO
  AvtoKrAZ sales structure by segment, 2007
  Sales destinations, ths units
  Officially reported data remains opaque
  Key forecasts
  Forecast revisions for AvtoKrAZ
  Truck production and capacity utilization
  Profitability forecasts
  Implied prices by DCF scenarios, USD per share
  DCF output of base case scenario, UAH mln, as of April
  Sensitivity analysis
  Valuation results, USD per share
  Financial Statements, UAS*
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln

  3.3 UkrAvto
  UkrAvto company (AVTO) ≠ UkrAvto brand
  Estimated structure of Tariel Vasadze automotive business
  Financial data and key ratios, 2008
  Risk of dilution
  Ukrainian car dealers, 2007
  Revenue structure of UkrAvto (AVTO)
  Key estimates for UkrAvto
  Valuation results, USD per share

  3.4 KrASZ Ltd
  CJSC Communal Transport Plant (Lviv Bus)
  OJSC Cherkasy Bus
  CJSC Eurocar
  CJSC Zaporizhya Automobile Plant

• 4. Appendices
  Appendix A: Bogdan production line
  Appendix B: AvtoKrAZ production line

  5. Analyst Certification
  6. Investment Ratings
  7. Disclaimer