Аннотация

Электрогенерация в Украине

Пять значимых теплоэнергетических компаний производят 1/3 часть всего электричества в Украине. Тепловая генерация будет вынуждена покрыть весь рост потребления электроэнергии, ожидаемый в будущем, так как атомные электростанции уже близки к пику своих мощностей.

Прибыльность украинских электрогенерирующих компаний - одна из самых низких в мире, но, в ближайшее время ожидается улучшение ситуации в связи с повышением спроса на электроэнергию в ближайшие несколько лет. 5 названных производителей подконтрольны государству – приватизация, ожидаемая в 2009-2010, станет катализатором роста акций компаний.

Мы видим три главных рычага, способных увеличить EBITDA компаний в более чем в десять раз в следующем десятилетии: приватизация (наиболее вероятна в 2010), резкое увеличение спроса на электроэнергию (после 2010) и либеризация оптового рынка электроэнергии  (2010-2012). Согласно нашим прогнозам, EBITDA начнет расти в 2011 и достигнет 24-30% к 2016.

При оценке справедливой стоимости компаний, мы применяем модель дисконтирования денежных потоков (DCF), сравнение с аналогами по финансовым коэффициентам, и оценку стоимости активов. Мы не делаем преференций одному методу, а полагаемся на средний показатель, поскольку каждый из подходов содержит свои подводные камни 

Англоязычная версия отчета 

The five publicly traded thermal power generation companies account for 1/3 of electricity production in Ukraine. Thermal generation will carry all the country's power demand growth: the only alternative, nuclear power plants, are close to full capacity load.

The profitability of Ukrainian thermal power generation is one of the lowest in the world, but we expect improvement with demand for thermal electricity increasing in the next couple of years. Five listed generators are controlled by state - privatization, expected in 2009-2010, would be a catalyst for the stocks.

We see three main drivers in the wings that are poised to push GenCos' EBITDA up by more than tenfold in the next decade: privatization (most probable in 2010), a sharp rise in demand for thermal electricity (after 2010) and wholesale electricity market liberalization (2010-1012). We forecast EBITDA margins will start accelerating in 2011 and approach xx% by 2016.

To widen the set of tools to value Thermal power generation stocks, we employ DCF modeling, valuation by comparable deals in Russia and an asset-based approach. With inherent drawbacks in each of the methods, we do not rely on a single approach.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment thesis
  Investment summary
  Closing in on mid to long-term value drivers
  Alternative investment to Russian OGKs
  Gas-fired power units idled again
  Privatization in 2008 is highly unlikely
  We recommend BUY on all GenCo stocks
  Our top picks
  GenCos summary - table

  2. Stock market
  GenCos: short-term OGK leapfrogs
  Russian market restructuring takes wind out of OGKs
  Daily multiples relationship: GenCos vs OGKs - chart
  Breaking the psychological threshold
  EV/Capacity, USD/kW - chart
  GenCos' premium/discount to OGKs - chart
  Stock market monitor
  Centerenergo. Stock performance, Spread, %, Trading volumes, USD mln - chart
  Dniproenergo Stock performance, Spread, %, Trading volumes, USD mln - chart
  Donbasenergo Stock performance, Spread, %, Trading volumes, USD mln - chart
  Zakhidenergo Stock performance, Spread, %, Trading volumes, USD mln - chart

  3. L-T outlook: Energy balance is beneficial for TPPs
  Supply: no alternative to TPPs after 2010
  Tariffs and capacity load, December 2007 - chart
  Forecast of available nuclear capacity, GW - chart
  Capacity and load forecasts by type of producer - chart
  CapEx needed to up production
  NERC initiative
  GenCo CapEx roundup: Only Vostokenergo has a clear plan
  Case study: Modernization at Vostokenergo
  Production forecasts
  Capacity load factor by GenCos - chart
  Energy deficit + Market reform = long-term surge in bottom line
  Wholesale market liberalization schedule approved by Cabinet
  Aggregate EBITDA of four GenCos - chart

  4. S-T outlook: Over-regulation will persist
  Production: return to market rules
  DNEN and CEEN grew faster in 2007
  Electricity market 2007: production total, production by coal-fired units, capacity load factor, 2007 - table
  Electricity market 1Q08: production total, production by coal-fired units, capacity load factor, 2007 - table
  Gas-fired power units will be mothballed
  DOEN and ZAEN will outrun the pack in 2008
  Gas and energy coal prices in Ukraine - chart
  Fuel costs of power units, USD/MWh - chart
  Production forecasts, Centreenergo, Dniproenergo, Donbasenergo, Zahidenergo, Kyivenergo, Vostokenergo, 2008 - table

  5. Financials: costs will boost... profits
  2007: Growth in top line, minor changes in bottom line
  Financial results of GenCos, 2007 - table
  1Q08: Top line is booming, profitability falling
  Financial results of GenCos, 1Q08 - table
  Time series analysis: profitability is steadily decreasing
  Yoy changes in aggregate costs and tariffs - chart
  Aggregate EBITDA margin - chart

  6. Corporate events
  2008 privatization is hardly possible
  Conflict between President and Prime Minister
  Distribution of privatization proceeds: the key sticking point
  2010 looks more realistic
  Dniproenergo: DTEK seems to have lost its chance

  7. Valuation

  7.1 Valuation methods
  Peer valuation underestimates GenCos' value
  Valuation by modeling GenCos' operations is subject to uncertainties
  Asset base can be a good approximation of long-term value potential

  7.2 Peer valuation
  Market multiples
  Peer valuation summary, Developed market peers - table
  Peer valuation summary, Emerging market peers - table
  Peer valuation summary, Russian peers - table
  Relationship between EBITDA/Capacity and EV/Capacity - chart
  Regression-implied GenCo prices - table
  Comparable deals: Russian OGKs
  OGK privatization multiples - table
  Implied upsides by OGK deals - table

  7.3 DCF valuation
  Operating model assumptions
  Average tariff, USD/MWh - chart
  Average capacity load (coal units) - chart
  Net revenue, USD mln - chart
  Coal (USD/mt) and gas prices - chart
  Fuel efficiency - chart
  Fuel costs, USD/MWh - chart
  Gross margins - chart
  DCF valuation summary
  Implied 12M prices - table

  7.4 Asset base valuation
  Replacement value (RV) of fixed assets
  Russian coal-fired power unit construction pipeline - table
  Depreciated RV
  Fixed asset accounting on GenCos' balance sheet - table
  Estimation of net asset base, USD mln - table

  7.5 Valuation summary
  Valuation summary, Centrenergo, USD - chart
  Valuation summary, Dniproenergo, USD - chart
  Valuation summary, Donbasenergo, USD - chart
  Valuation summary, Zakhidenergo, USD - chart

  8. Company profiles

  8.1 Centrenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Power plants location (circles for CEEN) - chart
  Financial summary and forecast, USD mln: 2005 - 2016E
  DCF output, 2008E - 2016E, UAH mln
  Sensitivity, USD per share

  8.2 Dniproenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Power plants location (circles for CEEN) - chart
  Financial summary and forecast, USD mln: 2005 - 2016E
  DCF output, 2008E - 2016E, UAH mln
  Sensitivity, USD per share

  8.3 Donbasenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Power plants location (circles for CEEN) - chart
  Financial summary and forecast, USD mln: 2005 - 2016E
  DCF output, 2008E - 2016E, UAH mln
  Sensitivity, USD per share

  8.4 Zakhidenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Power plants location (circles for CEEN) - chart
  Financial summary and forecast, USD mln: 2005 - 2016E
  DCF output, 2008E - 2016E, UAH mln
  Sensitivity, USD per share

• 9. Appendices

  Appendix 1: Power demand drivers: consumption, grid losses & exports
  Decrease in grid losses limited demand growth
  Structure of total demand, TWh - chart
  Electricity losses in grids, % of input - chart
  Growth rates: Production vs consumption - chart
  Internal consumption: key demand driver
  Structure of internal consumption, TWh - chart
  Structure of Ukrainian exports, TWh - chart
  Export: less to the east
  Export to UCTE
  Export to CIS

  Appendix 2: Why have OGK prices dropped?
  YTD performance, May 26, 2008 - table
  Overoptimism
  OGKs' market EV/Capacity vs. EV/Capacity of acquisition deals - chart
  Anticipated market overhang
  Case study: RAO UES restructuring

  10. Analyst certification
  11. GenCos target history