Аннотация

 Описание.

Рекламные рынки в Украине и России находятся в стадии быстрого роста, показывая 49% и 31% среднего роста в 2004-2007 соответственно, в сравнении с 6% в странах Западной Европы.

Анализ и перспективы развития.

Мы ожидаем, что оба рынка вырастут вдвое к 2010-2011: расходы на рекламу в расчете на человека в Украине в прошлом году составили лишь 20% от аналогичного показателя в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы, в России данный показатель составил 50%.

United Media Holding, объединяющий группу компаний «Украинский Медиа Холдинг» в Украине и издательский дом "Популярная пресса ", является одной из наибольших медиа групп на территории СНГ. Основные активы компании находятся в печатной прессе, радио и интернете. В мае 2008 года компания привлекла 45 млн долл США, разместив 15% акций среди портфельных инвесторов на Франфуртской бирже.

United Media Holding диверсифицирован с точки зрения присутствия в разных секторах медиа-рынка. Являясь наибольшим печатным домом в Украине, компания владеет второй по размеру сетью FM-радиостанций в стране. Интернет-бизнес компании представлен 23 вебсайтами.

Мы использовали модель DCF и сравнения со схожими компаниями для определения справедливой рыночной стоимости United Media Holding. 

Англоязычная версия отчета

The advertising markets in both Ukraine and Russia are in a rapid growth stage, posting 49% and 31% CAGR respectively in 2004-07, compared to 6% on average for Western European countries. We expect both markets to double from their current sizes by 2010-11: per capita advertising expenditures in Ukraine last year were a mere 20% of the average in other Central and Eastern Europe countries, while Russia's was 50% lower.

United Media Holding, one of Ukraine's largest media groups with exposure to print, radio and Internet, raised USD 45 mln by placing a 15% stake with portfolio investors in May.

United Media Holding is diversified in terms of its media presence. It is Ukraine's largest publishing house with a xx% share of advertising in print media, and xx% of the national audience in 2007. It owns the second-largest FM radio network in the country, and is the leader on Kyiv's FM radio market. The company's Internet business is currently comprised of xx websites.

We use DCF and peer valuation methods to derive the fair value of United Media Holding.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment Case

  2. Executive summary
  Media market boom in the CIS
  Exposure to the fast growing CIS media industry
  UMH's profile
  Expanding abroad
  Diversification into TV and Internet is a top priority

  3. Valuation
  Valuation methods
  DCF
  Peer valuation

  4. Media markets in Ukraine and Russia
  Advertising: fuelling media revenues
  Immense growth potential
  Reshuffling the media ad market structure
  Mid-term: threat to TV dominance in advertising
  Digitalization of TV & radio to increase competition in the longer term
  TV: the largest segment of ad market
  Radio: an alternative way to reach a large audience
  Internet: the fastest growing ad market segment
  Case study: the Internet as the last shelter for alcohol & tobacco ads
  Press advertising - growing ahead of the market
  Copy sales: room for growth
  Ukraine's market to double in the mid-term
  Retail development - the major trigger for copy sales

  5. Players and strategies
  Ukraine
  Russia

  6. UMH's business
  Company business segments
  Business model
  Diversification into non-publishing businesses
  Investment plans for 2008
  New publishing projects in Ukraine: benefits ahead
  Expansion of UMH publications in the CIS markets
  Profitability outlook
  Legal structure
  Management team
  Risks

  7. Financial Statements

  8. Appendices
  Appendix: Main publication titles

• CHARTS

  Share price performance, USD
  Revenue breakdown, 2007
  Per capita media ad spending, 2007
  2007-10E CAGR in ad spending
  Per capita media ad expenditures vs. per capita GDP, CEE**
  Media ad market structure, Ukraine
  Media ad market structure, Russia
  Media ad market structure, World
  Cost per thousand contacts (CPT) by media, USD, 2007
  CPT in TV & magazines depending on size of target audience, USD, Ukraine
  Percentage of households with access to digital TV, 2006*
  TV advertising markets, USD mln
  Daily audience reach by FM radio, %*
  Internet advertising, USD mln
  Internet penetration & advertising, 2007
  Advertising expenditures by publication segment in Ukraine, USD mln
  Ukrainian and Russian copy sales markets, USD mln
  Press retail points per 1 ths of people
  Share of supermarkets in press distribution, 2006
  Print media market structure in Ukraine by publishers
  Audience by TV channel in 2006-2007, audience 18+
  Radio audience in Ukraine
  Radio audience in Kyiv
  TOP-4 internet resources in terms of advertising revenue
  Print media market structure in Russia by publishers
  UMH's business segments
  Sales dynamics by segment, USD mln
  Sales breakdown, 2007
  UMH business segments
  New title launches by publishing houses in 2006-07*
  Gross ad revenues of Ukraine's Top-3 publishing houses, USD mln
  Circulation by magazine segment in Russia, mln copies
  Share of TV guide publishing houses in total ad revenues, Russia
  Ukrainian sports websites, top-5 in last 30 days (May 26-June 25), mln unique users
  Audience coverage by UMH radio stations, mln people
  Expansion plan for points of sale network
  UMH EBITDA by segment,
  EBITDA dynamics for new publications, USD mln
  Legal structure

  
  TABLES

  Market information*
  Stock ownership
  Key financials*, USD mln
  Market multiples*
  Media stocks with exposure to CIS markets
  Advertising market forecasts
  Revenue and EBITDA projections, USD mln
  DCF model forecasts
  DCF: Sensitivity analysis
  Peer valuation summary
  Time limitations of advertising legislation in Russia and Ukraine*
  Major limitations of advertising legislation in Russia and Ukraine*
  Ukraine: Main media players
  Russia: Main media holdings
  CapEx plans for 2008
  Mapping UMH in Ukraine's press ad market
  Income Statement Summary, USD mln*
  Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln*
  Cash Flow Statement, USD mln*
  Exchange Rates, UAH/USD
  Appendix: Main publication titles