Аннотация

На Украине дистрибуция электричества регулируется государством. Доля 28 компаний (облэнерго и две специализированные компании), составляет 97% дистрибуции и 80% поставок электричества в Украине. Недостаточный уровень капитальных инвестиций привел к высокому уровню изношенности оборудования – регулятор, НКРЕ, одобрил удвоение инвестиций для модернизации основных средств в 2008 году.
Ключевым фактором, влияющим на прибыльность ОблЭнерго в будущем, является тарифная реформа, запланированная на 2009: переход от тарифной политики «затраты+» к политике, ориентированной на RAB.
В данном отчете мы расширили наш набор методов оценки стоимости компаний, с учетом введения новых тарифов. Мы использовали показатели EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA для оценки 21 наибольших компаний по дистрибуции электричества. 

Англоязычная версия отчета

Ukrainian Electricity Distribution is state regulated. The 28 licensed distribution & supply companies account for xx% of electricity distribution and xx% of electricity supply in Ukraine. Underinvestment has led to a high level of worn out equipment in the sector - the regulator, NERC, has approved a double in investments to upgrade fixed assets in 2008.

The key bottom line driver for the future is tariff reform scheduled for 2009: transition from cost+ tariff policy to a RAB (regulatory asset base) policy.

In this report, we widened our set of valuation tools to more accurately estimate the companies' values under the new tariff policy. We use EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA multiples to value the 21 biggest electricity distribution companies.

Содержание отчёта

• 1. Investment summary

  2. Stock market and corporate governance
  Privatization targets trade more actively
  DTEK is likely to drive the market
  Political loggerheads
  Corporate conflicts wind down
  Dividend policies: No changes

  3. Payment collection, grid losses problems no more
  We stop discriminating against poor-performing Oblenergos
  Grid losses
  Payment collection
  Cash flow distribution

  4. Tariff policy: Regulated profits are growing
  CapEx growth/profit increase link
  EBITDA forecasts for 2008
  Tariff reform: lots of uncertainties

  5. 1Q08 Financial analysis
  2.5x bottom line surge in 1Q08
  1Q08 margins touch historical maximum
  Profitability: non-industrial Oblenergos have an edge
  Debt issue
  Adjustments of debt

  6. Valuation
  Valuation methods
  EV/Sales and EV/Electricity
  EV/EBITDA
  EV/RAB and P/B
  EV/Transformer capacity
  Target price estimation
  Top picks selection

  7. Appendix: Company profiles

  7.1 Cherkasyoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.2 Chernihivoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.3 Chernivtsioblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.4 Dniprooblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.5 Donetskoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.6 Energougol
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.7 Kharkivoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.8 Khersonoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.9 Khmelnitskoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.10 Kirovohradoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.11 Krymenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.12 Lvivoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.13 Mykolaivoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.14 Odessaoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.15 Poltavaoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.16 Prykarpatoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.17 Sevastopolenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.18 Sumyoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.19 Ternopiloblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.20 Vinnitsyaoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.21 Volynoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.22 Zakarpatoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.23 Zaporizhyaoblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  7.24 Zhytomyroblenergo
  BUSINESS OVERVIEW
  INVESTMENT CASE
  SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
  MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
  MARKET INFORMATION - table
  STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
  MARKET MULTIPLES - table
  KEY RATIOS - table
  Electricity data, TWh - chart
  Area of operation - chart

  8. Analyst certification
  9. Target Price History
  10. Investment ratings

• CHARTS

  Performance, YTD
  Sector's* commercial losses, % of power input
  Share of Oblenergos* with commercial losses
  Commercial electricity losses*, 1Q08, % of power input
  Settlements with Energorynok
  Share of disciplined* payers in group
  Oblenergos with below 100% settlements
  Share of Oblenergos that receive 100% cash flow from customers
  Sector's aggregate investment program, USD mln
  Growth in investments approved by regulator in 2008, yoy
  "Rule of thumb" link between EBITDA and investment program
  Investment program growth vs. EBITDA growth, USD mln
  Retail electricity tariffs by consumer groups, June 2008, USD/MWh
  Growth in aggregate bottom line, USD mln
  Aggregate EBITDA, USD mln
  Aggregate EBITDA margins
  Case study: Cherkasyoblenergo quarterly EBITDA margins, 2007
  EBITDA margins by groups: 1Q05 vs. 1Q08
  ODEN target: upside
  DNON: upside
  ZAON: upside
  ENUG: downside
  KION: upside
  SMEN: downside
  ZHEN: upside
  CHEN: upside
  CHEON: upside
  CHON: upside
  HAON: upside
  HMON: upside
  HOEN: upside
  KREN: upside
  LVON: upside
  POON: upside
  PREN: upside
  TOEN: upside
  VIEN: upside
  VOEN: upside
  ZOEN: upside
  Top picks selection summary

  
  TABLES

  Dividends of Ukrainian Electricity Distribution Companies
  Losses subject to compensation in 2008, % of low-voltage power input
  EBITDA forecast summary
  Sector profits increase, 1Q08, chg yoy
  Account payable statistics, 1Q08, USD mln
  Receivables adjustment, USD mln
  Net debt adjustment, USD mln
  Peer multiples: Distribution and supply companies
  Peer multiples: Grid companies
  Implied share prices, USD
  Peer EV/EBITDA multiples
  Implied share prices, USD
  Equipment price indices
  Book value and RAB estimates, USD mln
  Peer multiples
  Implied share prices, USD
  Correlation matrix for Oblenergo parameters
  Peer multiples: EV/Transformer capacity, USD/kVA
  Implied share prices by peer median EV/Capacity, USD
  Valuation summary table